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NIBA Journal

Insights, analysis, and updates from the National Introducing Brokers Association

Three Currencies to Watch in 2019
CME Updates
4 min read

Three Currencies to Watch in 2019

2018 was a phenomenal year for the U.S. dollar as the trade weighted Dollar Index rose more than 9 percent from its low in February. This strength drove all of the major currencies lower from the euro to the Japanese yen and Australian dollar. Nothing mattered more than the market’s appetite for U.S. dollars in 2018. It determined where all of the major currencies were headed and had a significant impact on commodities. That influence on the market won’t change in the year ahead which is why the outlook for the dollar trumps all else. As we begin 2019, here are three currencies to watch: U.S. Dollar The good times are over for the dollar. The trend for the greenback shifted in 2018 when equities collapsed and the economy began to slow. Unfortunately there are no shortages of risks for the U.S. economy in the year ahead. Volatility is rising,...

By NIBARead article
Three Geopolitical Risks Traders Will Watch in 2019
CME Updates
3 min read

Three Geopolitical Risks Traders Will Watch in 2019

Successful traders do not have a crystal ball.They identify and assess risk and then act accordingly. As 2018 ends and we look forward to 2019, what risks should we concern ourselves with? I am going to concentrate on three main areas of risk for traders in the United States: a continued trade conflict with China, the effect of Brexit on the global economy and stability in the oil producing region of the Middle East specifically with regards to Saudi Arabia. Trade Conflict with China When the current U.S. administration made it clear that there would be a different approach to our trade practices, I was skeptical. I felt that China was better positioned to play the long game. China does not have to play by the same political cycle rules that the United States does. They do not have to plan for a potential political upheaval every two, four or...

By NIBARead article
Market Update: The Factors That Influenced 2018 Markets
CME Updates
1 min read

Market Update: The Factors That Influenced 2018 Markets

The flattening of the yield curve, the rising dollar and hedge fund redemptions are among the factors that will eventually influence market structure. In looking back at this year’s trends, Jack Bouroudjian gives some guidance for what we should watch heading into 2019. The post Market Update: The Factors That Influenced 2018 Markets appeared first on OpenMarkets. Source: CME Open Markets - Market Update: The Factors That Influenced 2018 Markets

By NIBARead article
What to Watch in Energy Markets in 2019
CME Updates
4 min read

What to Watch in Energy Markets in 2019

The only certainty about global energy is that the markets will continue to surprise in 2019. The energy business has always been notorious for its ups and downs. This is even more true today when the energy landscape is evolving rapidly. The old order is changing fast as new trade routes emerge, driven by the resurgence of US energy production. That said, there are a few key trends that emerged in 2018 that are likely to set the tone for the year ahead. U.S. Oil Independence The United States was a net exporter of oil and refined products for one week in late November for the first time in 75 years. The shale revolution has seen domestic U.S. crude oil production surge to around 11.7 million barrels per day. Plentiful supplies of crude oil are also making U.S. refiners more competitive, encouraging them to boost output of refined products like...

By NIBARead article
What Makes A Bear Market?
CME Updates
4 min read

What Makes A Bear Market?

The most commonly held definition of a “bear market” in stocks is a 20 percent price decline from peak to trough. Although there are several different index’s one could use to measure, most often people are referring to the Dow Jones industrial average or the S&P 500 index. Traders tend to look at the S&P 500 because it’s far more broad then the Dow 30 and less volatile than the technology heavy Nasdaq 100. Since 1999 there have been three bear markets in the S&P 500. All bear markets are definitely not created equal. The “tech wreck” of 2000 and the real estate implosion of 2007 were vastly larger than the minor 2011 bear caused by the European crises. The main reason that bears differ is that the bull markets that precede them are often unique. Story, Sentiment and Market Position Prices of any asset are determined by three things:...

By NIBARead article
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